Who moved the electricity to trigger the "electricity shortage" and increase the price of electricity?

Since the end of last year, the "electricity shortage" has continued and was called by the media as the "longest" electricity shortage. As the weather turns cold, the situation of power shortages in the country is further aggravated. The China Electric Power Business Federation's previously published forecast report on the national power supply and demand in the first three quarters of this year predicts that the nation’s largest power shortage will reach 30 million to 40 million kilowatts this winter and next spring. It may be difficult to avoid power cuts this winter.

SERC predicts that the power gap in central and southern China, including Hubei, Hunan, Jiangxi, Henan, Anhui, and Chongqing, will be 1,500 kilowatts in the winter and next spring, which is the largest in years. In the face of this power shortage, many regions have adopted measures to cut power consumption for high-energy-consuming industries. At the same time, some regions have correspondingly increased electricity prices to ease the “electricity shortage”.

Under the circumstances of power shortages, the people have questioned who in the end has caused electricity and triggered the “electricity shortage”, but also raised the price of electricity.

High coal prices or exacerbating China's winter power shortage Recently, coal shortages have become more and more serious in many coal-replaced provinces and coal-transferring provinces. The rise in coal prices and the inaccessibility of inter-provincial coal transportation make it possible for a considerable number of power plants to operate in winter. Coal shortages stop the increase in the power supply and demand gap. Compared with coal reserves that some power generation enterprises such as Hunan, Shanxi, and Guizhou had previously stored for 30 days or more in the coal storage phase of the previous winter, the enthusiasm for Yancoal, a power generation company, was not high in 2011, and the coal storage days of many power plants were only about 10 days. This has brought a great deal of hidden danger to the winter power shortage.

Judging from the market trend of Qinhuangdao coal price, the comprehensive average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim 5,500 kcal has continuously risen from the end of August. Many power plants in Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Hunan, and other regions faced a situation where coal shortages were halted and they could not generate electricity. Even in the coal-producing province of Shanxi, due to strained power supply in the province, many power plants in the province had previously transferred coal to Inner Mongolia, which has richer coal resources and cheaper coal prices.

During the winter peak season, there may be a phenomenon of coal shortages in some power plants. Large-scale electricity shortages may be difficult to avoid.

High-energy-consuming industries use electricity to exacerbate electricity shortages. In the first half of the year, many rare lands in China suffered from the “off-season” power shortage. This shows that the phenomenon of electric power shortages is shifting towards globalization and normalization. But what is the cause of the electricity shortage? Some people think it is The reduction in incoming water supply and the shortage of coal supply have led some people to believe that the price of coal is too high, and some people think that it is an institutional factor. However, it is undeniable that electricity, as an important reference in close contact with the economy, has its surplus or deficiency and must be analyzed in the context of macroeconomics, otherwise it will be difficult to explain why. For example, in 2007, when the southern part of China suffered a drought, and electricity supply was also tight, there was no shortage of electricity, and it was difficult to explain that the price of coal was only half of the current price of coal in 2004, and the government had the most serious history of coal-electricity linkage. The national power shortage.

In other words, the root cause of the electricity shortage is the economic imbalance. The main reason for the shortage of electricity before 2003 was that China’s economic development was stable for a certain period of time, and the GDP growth rate was below double digit for six consecutive years. When the economy suddenly grows rapidly, too low installed capacity of electric power is difficult to meet the needs of the economy, so it is necessary to rely on large-scale installation to ease. The reason for this year's power shortage is that the economic demand is abnormally strong. This year is the year when the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" begins. A large number of projects are under construction and affected by the task of completing energy conservation and emission reduction at the end of the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period. Some high energy consumption The company’s production capacity is substantially released this year. This is the root cause of this year’s power shortage. In fact, China’s power generation capacity is sufficient. In the first three quarters, China’s power generation capacity was 35.4 billion kWh, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year and over 9.4%. The economic growth rate, and the first three quarters of the country's cumulative average utilization of thermal power is 3986 hours, it is estimated that the annual power generation hours will not exceed 5500 hours, in fact, this figure can reach 6000 to 7000 hours, enough to ease the current shortage Electrical conditions.

The reduction in the number of incoming water from the south and the power supply in the northwestern grid has caused a large area of ​​drought in the southern part of the country this year. The incoming water has fallen sharply year-on-year, and the wet season has been short. As a result, the hydropower generation has dropped drastically, and hydropower has not been able to fully contribute in the winter. However, there are insufficient funds and coal prices in thermal power generation. Such factors as power loss, which is one of the reasons leading to the shortage of hydraulic power supply in the South.

In recent years, more funds have been invested in trans-provincial power grid construction, and the province’s power grid construction funds have been insufficient, resulting in insufficient strength of the provincial power grid. In some provinces, due to the grid structure of the power grid, the transmission capacity of the high voltage level network is insufficient, and the output of large generating units is affected. In addition, the 300,000 kilowatt-class units located in the load center area can only produce more electricity.

Professionals believe that to break the power shortage, it is necessary to get rid of "price increase dependence." The main reason why electricity prices must rise is the so-called coal price inversion. In a sense, this is indeed a reality. The power companies demanded an increase in electricity prices, and the public is not unable to understand them.

What people are wondering is: Why can't power grid companies' profits be reduced? To solve the problem of coal power price upside down and power generation companies' losses, we must use the increase in sales price as a precondition?

As a systematic topic, the electricity shortage cannot be resolved by price increases or prices, and it will always reach out to consumers. According to past experience, the profit space brought about by the increase in electricity prices will soon be engulfed by the rising price of coal. Once this kind of “price-dependence disease” suffers, it will become as addictive as drug abuse. In order to solve the power shortage problem, in addition to reaching out to consumers, there are still many areas in which power companies can benefit.

Such as transportation costs. Why can't the secondary road tolls for coal-conveying vehicles be cancelled? Even if it is a highway, whether or not it can reduce the tolls for transporting vegetables in special seasons? Reducing the transportation costs from all aspects can reduce the cost of electricity generation from the roots. One way.

Another example is why coal is transported over long distances rather than electricity that is more easily transported. More than 60% of the coal produced in major coal producing areas such as Shanxi and Shaanxi is converted into electricity after long-distance transportation to other provinces and cities. . The electricity generated in the main coal-producing areas is less than that of coal-less and less coal, which not only causes inconvenient and uneconomical transportation, but also causes serious overloading, road damage, and traffic congestion. In the face of abnormal weather, it may affect coal transportation and even lead to Pull off power. In the coal resources development zone, the transformation of coal-electricity on the spot, the development of large-capacity and long-distance power transmission, and the transformation of coal into electricity transmission are certainly more positive and long-lasting than simply increasing the price of electricity.

There are also new energy issues. If we can get rid of excessive dependence on coal power generation, and actively develop various clean energy and bio-energy use, whether it is short-term power shortage relief, or long-term protection of energy security, the importance of not blindly increase the price can be compared. Apart from that, as a large agricultural country, there are 350 million tons of crop stalks that China can only use for energy, and the total amount is equivalent to 500 million tons of standard coal. In addition, 20% of China’s land is rich in wind energy resources. Such a good resource is still far from being developed and fully used. In fact, even if it goes up this year, it will not be able to hold it next year. Moreover, the adjustment of electricity prices will affect all aspects of downstream production and living. This will alleviate the hard-won inflationary pressures. Relevant parties should think twice before proceeding.