Market is "red", LED lighting "looks beautiful"

LED lighting has recently become a hot market speculation, behind the logic is nothing but three: First, LED lighting as a substitute, benefit from the phase-out incandescent lamp policy; Second, the LED industry is reshuffle, listed companies as industry leaders, promising Benefit from the integration of the industry; the third is the LED lighting subsidy policy, green lighting, "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" and other follow-up support policies will also be introduced.

The reason is very good, the funds are also very good, LED lighting sector will naturally rise significantly. However, market speculation is after all expected. It is expected that it may or may not be honored. Some people had expected that LED lamps would replace fluorescent lamps some years ago, but eventually fluorescent lamps still dominated the lighting market. LED lighting is still in its infancy and is far from mature. Recent policy trends have made investors feel that LED lighting will enter the fast lane of development. This time, good expectations can be honored?

According to experts, the domestic output of LED light sources is 150 million in 2010, and is expected to exceed 1.4 billion in 2015. The output value of LED lamps will quadruple in five years. Whether or not the predicted value can be achieved depends on two aspects. One is whether the policy is as strong as the market expected. The second is whether the reason why the previous development is lower than expected is no longer hindering the development of the industry.

From the policy level, although the government’s determination to promote LED lighting is obvious, the policy may not be as “delusional” as market rumors call it. Relevant departments have stated clearly that they will strongly encourage the production and promotion of LED lamps. The market once reported that the subsidy for LED lighting terminal users will reach 8 billion yuan, and the scope and intensity of late subsidies will continue to expand. but. The reporter learned from the authoritative channel that the policy of subsidizing terminal sales of LED lighting is under discussion and is likely to be introduced within the year. Not all companies are subsidized, their products need to be tested, certified, and companies participate in bids after winning the bid. This kind of policy is a guiding policy and it is not expected to spread across a large area. In addition, subsidies are definitely a phased policy and cannot be permanently sustained.

From the historical experience of the development of the industry, many years ago the policy began to support the LED lighting industry, but the improvement is not very clear. Under the stimulation of the policy, the industry added a lot of production capacity, but lack of R & D strength, resulting in the current status of low-end overcapacity is obvious, the industry reshuffle is also closely related to this. According to media reports, in the first half of this year, there were about 4,000 LED companies in Shenzhen. In the first half of this year, more than 100 midstream packaging companies and more than 300 downstream application companies closed down. The failure of LED companies not only happened in Shenzhen, but also had a large number of manufacturers established and closed every month. The industry relied on the last minute profit.

The bubble triggered by the previous round of policy stimulus is bursting, and a new round of policy stimulus has gradually begun. Of course, policies will be adjusted based on reflections on lessons learned. However, are companies ready? The problems of weak R&D strength and the restriction of core patents will continue to constrain the development of the domestic LED lighting industry for a long time.

There are views that although the core patents of the upstream chip are in the hands of the top five international giants, domestic companies can also apply for patents in other parts of the industry chain, thus gaining bargaining chips in patent warfare. However, the more realistic situation is that only by mastering the core patents can we have the right to speak. It is probably not easy for domestic companies to get rid of the shackles of transnational giants.